U.S. Elections 2020: Those, Who Want To Defeat President Trump, Are Divided Themselves: Pollster Zogby
By Manoj Rijal, NEW YORK: An international pollster and founder of a reputed polling institution, John Zogby Strategies, has laid out the risk factors, as well as chances for President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, saying that the opponents of President Trump have so many splits within themselves, that would make it tough for them to defeat the incumbent in the November, 2020 elections.
“President Trump can be re-elected. He might very well be re-elected. The nation’s split, and what compounds things for those who want to defeat him is that those, who want to defeat him, are split,” said John Zogby, an international pollster, author and the founder of John Zogby Strategies.
Zogby said the opposition Democratic Party may be leading in four or five battleground states “for now” but the scenario may change during the election time, which is still months away.
“We see a recent spate of polls nationally in the battleground states suggesting that Democrats leading by four, five or seven points in some cases. But that’s today. That’s not enough to sustain a Democratic victory,” Zogby said.
As of today, Democrats are leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and are trailing behind President Trump in Iowa and Florida, according to pollster Zogby.
Zogby said there are some decisive factors within the opposition Democratic Party that are contributing towards a huge split in this one of the two largest political parties of the U.S.
The traditional divide of moderate establishment and progressive left in the Democratic Party since 1968, which is now represented by Democratic presidential nomination candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, respectively, and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaking against Sanders, are some of the distinct divides that may sink the presidential bid of the Democratic Party, as Zogby would outline.
“The Democrats have not resolved their internal issues. When the immediate past nominee says: I won’t vote for Bernie Sanders, that’s a signal that the establishment may very well not vote for Bernie Sanders, which can lead to a situation historically like George McGovern in 1972, where he won the nomination but the party establishment just sat on their hands,” Zogby said, indicating towards Hillary Clinton’s recent public comment on Sanders, in which she said “Nobody likes Bernie Sanders.”
(Analyst John Zogby said Iowa Caucus slated for Monday, February 3, 2020 will be the first major step towards nominating the presidential candidates from both the Democratic as well as the Republican Party for the November, 2020 elections. Photo Courtesy: Foreign Press Center)
Besides, President Trump’s popularity graph will be a major factor in deciding the course of the elections.
“President Trump was elected with 46 percent of the popular vote. If he goes into the election close to this figure, he can’t be ruled out. But if he slides down to 40 or 41 percent approval rating, that could spell trouble, and in particular in those battleground states,” Zogby said.
Likewise, winning the votes of African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans and the young voters between the ages of 18 to 29 will be crucial in securing an election victory either for the ruling Republic Party or the opposition Democratic Party.
“The Number one issue for the young people is economy followed by healthcare. Number Three is education, while Number four are environment and climate change. Number five is gun control. The two most intense issues are climate change and guns,” Zogby said.
Zogby was speaking at an interaction program organized by the Foreign Press Center in Washington D.C. ahead of the Iowa Caucus slated for Monday, February 3, 2020. Journalists in New York participated in the event through a video conference.
Iowa Caucus is an important step towards endorsing the presidential candidates of both the parties ahead of the National Conventions that ultimately endorse the final candidates.
In 2016 Iowa Caucus meant for the 2016 presidential elections, Hillary Clinton (49.8%) won the Democratic nomination defeating rival Bernie Sanders (49.6%) with a narrow margin.
Likewise, Ted Cruz (27.7%) won the Republican nomination in Iowa, defeating President Trump (24.3%) in one of the 12 states Cruz won in his 2016 presidential bid.
Once the primaries and caucus are over, the Democratic and Republican parties will hold their separate National Conventions to finally endorse their 2020 presidential candidates.
The Democratic Party is holding its National Convention in July, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while the Republican Party is holding its National Convention in August, 2020 in Charlottes, North Carolina.