KATHMANDU: Meteorologists have forecast that Nepal’s four states of the country would receive below average rainfall while three states would witness average rainfall during this monsoon season which starts from June.
According to Director General Saraju Kumar Baidya at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), States 1, 2, 3 and 5 will receive below average rainfall and States 4, 6 and 7, of the western Nepal, will have an average rainfall during the monsoon period.
When rainfall is recorded 90 per cent to 110 per cent of precipitations from the period of June to the end of September, meteorologists consider this situation as average rainfall. But when the rainfall is recorded below 90 per cent and above 110, it is considered as below average or above rainfalls respectively, Director General Baidya told The Rising Nepal Sunday.
“The calculation is drawn looking at the over 30 years of monsoon’s phenomenon of Nepal,” Baidya said.
In Nepal, monsoon normally begins in June and lasts till September. During monsoon season, 80 per cent of the total annual rainfalls is recorded from June to September, said Baidya.
This year’s projection was made after the 14th South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) meeting held on April 22 and 23 in Kathmandu.
The SASCOF issued its consensus outlook based on an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
The below average, average and above average rainfalls projection during the monsoon season mainly depends on El Nino phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean, he said.
El Nino and La Nina are two opposite phases of what is known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. According to him, ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central equatorial Pacific.
To understand better in short term, La Nina is referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Nino as the warm phase of ENSO.
Development of El Nino situation means indication of warm or less precipitations in monsoon, and reverse situation in La Nino condition.
Senior Meteorologist Min Kumar Aryal said that generally when El Nino develops fully in such a condition, Nepal is more likely to witness below average and average rainfall when the El Nino remains neutral.
At present, El Nino is in weak condition and is expected to go further weaker during the end of monsoon season, Aryal said. However, some other climate models have also shown that the situation would remain neutral in the ENSO condition.
He however said that the early El-Nino prediction may go haywire uncertain.
Meanwhile, the maximum temperature in Sarlahi recorded at 38 degree Celsius had disrupted the normal life.
Warm wind started blowing in the district and other parts of the district after temperature started shooting up from Mid-April.
District headquarters Malangawa’s maximum temperature was recorded at 38 degree Celsius on Sunday afternoon.
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