Analysis: Is Trump Going To Win The 2020 Election?
By Manoj Rijal, NEW YORK:- It may be shocking for many. But it’s true: Incumbent US President Donald Trump may repeat what he did in 2016 election. In 2016, all major opinion polls showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump with at least 5 points difference. But in the end of the day, President Trump emerged victorious.
In the 2020 opinion polls ahead of the November 3rd election, Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in all major polls by at least 7 to 10 points. However, facts and performance of President Trump so far indicate that his base of supporters is still unmoved and he has not given up to Vice President Biden, either.
Various polls in swing states like Pennsylvania and Florida may have shown Vice President Biden leading President Trump. But the current situation in those states is still opaque for drawing out a fine line.
In Florida, Latino voters, mostly the children of immigrants from communist Cuba, do not want to support Democratic Party, fearing that the party has similar domestic policies like those of Cuba. If the Democratic Party and its nominee Vice President Biden manage to convince the voters that they are different than those despots of Cuba or China, then the voters may turn in their favor just like they did in 2008 elections for President Barack Obama. Otherwise, there is high chance that majority of them would vote for President Trump, who they perceive as having the agenda of less state interference in people’s lives.
In Pennsylvania, “fracking” – mostly an American word for drilling oil and gas fields – has emerged as a hot issue especially after the final presidential debate on October 22, 2020. Vice President Biden laid out his intention to phase out fracking and the entire oil industry by 2050, and completely transform to clean energy alternatives in a span of 30 years. Vice President Biden, however, failed to pledge jobs for those innocent and decent Pennsylvanians, Texans and other Americans, who are solely dependent on oil industry for a living, raising their kids and ensuring good future for them.
The fear of losing jobs in oil industry without state-sponsored job retaining plans on behalf of Vice President Biden and team may help President Trump drift the mass sentiment in his favor. Stock market, too, is not behaving properly following Vice President Biden’s announcement landing without a plan to compensate damages made by shifting from the centuries old oil industry to an industry based on clean energy.
In Michigan, the impact of Covid-19 pandemic has played a key role in shaping up people’s mind for and against President Trump. People are equally divided as to whether there should be strict lockdown or some loosening as well. Many people, though, agree that there was a slow response from President Trump to tackle the virus in Michigan and other parts of the US, for what President Trump defends as his step to ensure “Americans should not panic even at the time of a pandemic.”
On foreign policy front, President Trump managed to ensure no major war during the past four years, facilitated Israel and its Arab neighbors to ink the Abraham Peace Accords, teared down ISIS chieftain Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Iran’s war-monger Qasem Suleimani, while bringing the North Korean despot Kim Jong Un to the talks table.
President Trump mostly wanted a withdrawal policy from the global stage, as he made US inbound policies his major priority. Many critics appreciated President Trump’s “global withdrawal”, or in other words the “non-interfering policy”, while many saw it as a decline of American power in the world stage.
Only a few days before the election, it is natural that President Trump will be judged for what he did and what he was not willing to do. Former Vice President Joe Biden will also be judged for what he accomplished and what he could not in the past.
Election is a game and the opponent gets a point (and lead) by the mistake of the other side. President Trump and Vice President Biden are looking for the mistakes of each other. The more mistakes they manage to find, more is the chance their side wins.
The role of “hidden voters” is also significant here. In Pennsylvania, Florida and other swing states, the hidden voters quietly supported President Trump in the 2016 elections. This could be the case again, but the arrival of Covid-19 and Black Lives Matter protests have made things less predictable for this time around. And millions of Americans have lost their jobs, and are struggling merely for a survival.
Still, faith is faith. If people think, President Trump is doing the right thing in his capacity and that he is dedicated to rescue Americans from this bad situation seen after more than 75 years of relatively peaceful time, then he may win.
After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the US soil and the killing of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, President George W Bush managed to secure second term win in the 2004 election, as people still had faith in him to lead the American people. However, President George HW Bush, the Bush senior, lost his second term election in 1992 to President Bill Clinton following the US engagement in the Iraq-Kuwait War.
The US presidential elections have always been a hope and beacon for democracy and liberty worldwide, nonetheless a matter of curiosity as well. People around the world look upon the US and its various levels of elections for strengthening democratic values, multiparty democracy, humans rights and freedom. Had there been a “magic wand”, things could have been a lot easier to predict a presidential winner, who would be sworn in on January 20, 2021. Still, no matter who wins — either President Trump or Vice President Biden, either Democratic Party or the Republican Party — democracy and liberty should always win in the end of the day.